America’s Africa Dilemma: Airstrikes, Commodities, and the New Great Power Game
Trump’s “outside the box” military and trade moves in Africa are drawing fresh praise and controversy—highlighting America’s high-stakes competition with China, Russia, and Iran for control over the world’s last big commodity frontier.
Jun 18, 2025
The U.S. “Out-of-the-Box” Play in Africa: More Than Airstrikes
Is Africa America’s new battleground?
The U.S. is doubling down on military and economic engagement in Africa—recently earning praise from Republican leaders for “outside the box” airstrikes on terror groups in Somalia. But this is just the tip of a much bigger story: a scramble for Africa’s resources and alliances as China, Russia, and Iran ramp up their own campaigns on the continent.
“The economic opportunities in Africa cannot be understated, and the United States needs to have a seat at the table regarding trade and investment in the region.”
— Sen. Jim Risch, Chairman, Senate Foreign Relations Committee
U.S. Security Playbook: Counterterrorism Meets Commodity Diplomacy
Trump’s Africa policy, according to Sen. Jim Risch, focused on direct military action against terror threats (notably, six airstrikes in Somalia this month alone) while pushing for closer trade and resource partnerships.
Why? Africa is the last major frontier for critical minerals (think cobalt, rare earths, lithium, uranium)—materials that power the global energy transition and digital economy (IEA data).
The U.S. has long lagged behind China in securing long-term supply deals and infrastructure control on the continent. China already controls about 70% of global cobalt refining, largely sourced from the Democratic Republic of Congo (S&P Global).
Risch singles out the “malign actors” in Africa—China, Russia, and Iran—for destabilizing the region through military interventions, exploitative trade, and nuclear ambitions (with Iran pushing uranium deals).
From Sudan’s Civil War to South Africa’s Trade—America’s Shrinking Leverage?
America’s latest moves come as the continent faces:
The world’s biggest humanitarian crisis (over 12 million displaced in Sudan since April 2023; UN OCHA)
Explosive growth in Islamist militant groups (U.S. airstrikes against ISIS and Al-Qaeda in Somalia are up sharply since 2023; AFRICOM)
Russia and China using security aid, energy deals, and BRICS partnerships to boost influence (recent BRICS summits include high-profile deals on energy, agriculture, and tech—see Reuters)
Yet U.S. policy is constrained:
The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), once a pillar of U.S.–Africa trade, is set to expire soon and has lost relevance as African countries pivot toward non-Western partners (Brookings).
Even strong U.S. partners like South Africa are hedging their bets, engaging with China, Russia, Iran, and even Hamas—all while enjoying U.S. trade benefits.
Why This Matters: The Future of Global Commodities Runs Through Africa
Africa is ground zero for the next decade’s commodity supercycle:
Critical Minerals: The DRC, Zambia, and others hold most of the world’s cobalt and huge reserves of copper, lithium, manganese, and rare earths (USGS Africa data).
Energy: New oil/gas finds in Mozambique, Senegal, Namibia are shifting global LNG flows, with Europe and China both vying for long-term supply.
Demographics: Africa will add more people to the global workforce than any other region by 2040 (UN Population Prospects), making it an emerging market juggernaut—and a battleground for supply chains, manufacturing, and industrial policy.
If the U.S. loses its edge in Africa, the entire supply chain security strategy (from EVs to semiconductors) is at risk.
The Gamp Sheet Take: Is America Still in the Game?
the reality is tougher:
China’s commodity diplomacy—backed by infrastructure investment and state-owned buyers—dwarfs U.S. engagement by a factor of at least 3:1 in key sectors (CSIS data).
Russia’s use of Wagner mercenaries and arms sales has shifted the security balance in the Sahel and Central Africa.
U.S. airstrikes are a tactical move, but strategic influence demands deeper partnerships, investment, and trade policy reforms.
Bottom line:
The fight for Africa isn’t about “out-of-the-box” airstrikes. It’s about who controls tomorrow’s supply chains—and whether America can retool its playbook before China and Russia finish rewriting the rules.